Recession Predictions For 2024. “the sahm rule is currently sending the right cautionary message about the labor market cooling, but the volume is too loud.”. For many americans, 2023 was a hard year financially, but will what’s coming be better or worse?

The sahm rule forecasts recessions based on a 0.5% rise in a smoothed version of unemployment rate over the course of a year, as developed by economist claudia sahm. For many americans, 2023 was a hard year financially, but will what’s coming be better or worse?